What, how and who: Cost-effectiveness analyses of COVID-19 vaccination to inform key policies in Nigeria.

While safe and efficacious COVID-19 vaccines have achieved high coverage in high-income settings, roll-out remains slow in sub-Saharan Africa. By April 2022, Nigeria, a country of over 200 million people, had only distributed 34 million doses. To ensure the optimal use of health resources, cost-effectiveness analyses can inform key policy questions in the health technology assessment process. We carried out several cost-effectiveness analyses exploring different COVID-19 vaccination scenarios in Nigeria. In consultation with Nigerian stakeholders, we addressed three key questions: what vaccines to buy, how to deliver them and what age groups to target. We combined an epidemiological model of virus transmission parameterised with Nigeria specific data with a costing model that incorporated local resource use assumptions and prices, both for vaccine delivery as well as costs associated with care and treatment of COVID-19. Scenarios of vaccination were compared with no vaccination. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated in terms of costs per disability-adjusted life years averted and compared to commonly used cost-effectiveness ratios. Viral vector vaccines are cost-effective (or cost saving), particularly when targeting older adults. Despite higher efficacy, vaccines employing mRNA technologies are less cost-effective due to high current dose prices. The method of delivery of vaccines makes little difference to the cost-effectiveness of the vaccine. COVID-19 vaccines can be highly effective and cost-effective (as well as cost-saving), although an important determinant of the latter is the price per dose and the age groups prioritised for vaccination. From a health system perspective, viral vector vaccines may represent most cost-effective choices for Nigeria, although this may change with price negotiation.

Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 vaccination programme's timing and speed on health benefits, cost-effectiveness, and relative affordability in 27 African countries.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 vaccine supply shortage in 2021 constrained roll-out efforts in Africa while populations experienced waves of epidemics. As supply improves, a key question is whether vaccination remains an impactful and cost-effective strategy given changes in the timing of implementation. METHODS: We assessed the impact of vaccination programme timing using an epidemiological and economic model. We fitted an age-specific dynamic transmission model to reported COVID-19 deaths in 27 African countries to approximate existing immunity resulting from infection before substantial vaccine roll-out. We then projected health outcomes (from symptomatic cases to overall disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted) for different programme start dates (01 January to 01 December 2021, n = 12) and roll-out rates (slow, medium, fast; 275, 826, and 2066 doses/million population-day, respectively) for viral vector and mRNA vaccines by the end of 2022. Roll-out rates used were derived from observed uptake trajectories in this region. Vaccination programmes were assumed to prioritise those above 60 years before other adults. We collected data on vaccine delivery costs, calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) compared to no vaccine use, and compared these ICERs to GDP per capita. We additionally calculated a relative affordability measure of vaccination programmes to assess potential nonmarginal budget impacts. RESULTS: Vaccination programmes with early start dates yielded the most health benefits and lowest ICERs compared to those with late starts. While producing the most health benefits, fast vaccine roll-out did not always result in the lowest ICERs. The highest marginal effectiveness within vaccination programmes was found among older adults. High country income groups, high proportions of populations over 60 years or non-susceptible at the start of vaccination programmes are associated with low ICERs relative to GDP per capita. Most vaccination programmes with small ICERs relative to GDP per capita were also relatively affordable. CONCLUSION: Although ICERs increased significantly as vaccination programmes were delayed, programmes starting late in 2021 may still generate low ICERs and manageable affordability measures. Looking forward, lower vaccine purchasing costs and vaccines with improved efficacies can help increase the economic value of COVID-19 vaccination programmes.

SARS CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Selected States of High and Low Disease Burden in Nigeria.

Importance: The global impact of COVID-19 has led to an increased need to continuously assess disease surveillance tools. The utility of SARS-CoV-2 serologic tools in determining immunity levels across different age groups and locations in helping to quickly assess the burden of COVID-19 with significant health policy implications is unknown. Objective: To determine the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies with respect to the age group and sex of participants. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cross-sectional survey of 4904 individuals across 12 states with high and low COVID-19 disease burden in Nigeria was carried out between June 29 and August 21, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used for the detection of specific SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G and immunoglobulin M antibodies, such as the nucleocapsid protein-NCP and spike protein S1. Interviewer-administered questionnaires provided information on participants' history of disease and associated risk factors. Results: A total of 4904 individuals participated in the study (3033 were female [61.8%]; mean [SD] age, 26.7 [6.51] years). A high seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (78.9%) was obtained. Seropositivity was consistent across the states surveyed, ranging from 69.8% in Lagos to 87.7% in Borno. There was no association between sex and seropositivity (female, 2414 [79.6%]; male, 1456 [77.8%]; P = .61); however, an association was noted between age and seropositivity, with the peak prevalence observed in participants aged 15 to 19 years (616 [83.6%]; P = .001). Similarly, loss of appetite (751 [82.3%]; P = .04) and smell (309 [84.4%]; P = .01) were associated with seropositivity. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, a high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was obtained among the study population during the low level of vaccination at the time of the survey. Thus, there is a need for both an efficacy and antibody neutralization test study to ascertain the efficacy of the antibody detected and the potential for herd immunity in Nigeria.

Strengthening equitable health systems in West Africa: The regional project on governance research for equity in health systems

WAHO's mission is to propel the attainment of the highest possible standard and protection of health of the peoples in the sub-region through the harmonization of the policies of the member States, pooling of resources, and cooperation with one another and with others for a collective and strategic combat against the health problems of the sub-region. In partnership with the International Development Research Center (IDRC), WAHO embarked on a regional project on governance research for equity in health systems, overseen by the Regional Advisory Committee (RAC) and the Steering Committee. The framework underpinning the methodology (Figure 1) included elements such as project process (Relevance, Project Planning, Community Involvement, Project Implementation and Monitoring), project outcome (Equity, Effectiveness, Efficiency and Partnership) and project impact (Capacity Building, Sustainability and Perceived Impact of the projects in the countries and Lessons Learned). According to the project stakeholder perception, all the projects were relevant and aligned with the countries' priorities.

Validation of a COVID-19 mental health and wellness survey questionnaire.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: COVID-19 affected mental health and wellbeing. Research is needed to assess its impact using validated tools. The study assessed the content validity, reliability and dimensionality of a multidimensional tool for assessing the mental health and wellbeing of adults. METHODS: An online questionnaire collected data in the second half of 2020 from adults in different countries. The questionnaire included nine sections assessing: COVID-19 experience and sociodemographic profile; health and memory; pandemic stress (pandemic stress index, PSI); financial and lifestyle impact; social support; post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD); coping strategies; self-care and HIV profile over 57 questions. Content validity was assessed (content validity index, CVI) and participants evaluated the test-retest reliability (Kappa statistic and intra-class correlation coefficient, ICC). Internal consistency of scales was assessed (Cronbach α). The dimensionality of the PSI sections and self-care strategies was assessed by multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) using all responses and SPSS. For qualitative validation, we used a semi-structured interview and NVivo was used for coding and thematic analysis. RESULTS: The overall CVI = 0.83 with lower values for the memory items. Cronbach α for the memory items = 0.94 and ICC = 0.71. Cronbach α for PTSD items was 0.93 and ICC = 0.89. Test-retest scores varied by section. The 2-dimensions solution of MCA for the PSI behavior section explained 33.6% (precautionary measures dimension), 11.4% (response to impact dimension) and overall variance = 45%. The 2-dimensions of the PSI psychosocial impact explained 23.5% (psychosocial impact of the pandemic dimension), 8.3% (psychosocial impact of the precautionary measures of the pandemic dimension) and overall variance = 31.8%. The 2-dimensions of self-care explained 32.9% (dimension of self-care strategies by people who prefer to stay at home and avoid others), 9% (dimension of self-care strategies by outward-going people) and overall variance = 41.9%. Qualitative analysis showed that participants agreed that the multidimensional assessment assessed the effect of the pandemic and that it was better suited to the well-educated. CONCLUSION: The questionnaire has good content validity and can be used to assess the impact of the pandemic in cross-sectional studies especially as individual items. The PSI and self-care strategies need revision to ensure the inclusion of items with strong discrimination.

Sex differences in the experience of COVID-19 post-traumatic stress symptoms by adults in South Africa

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has created multiple mental health challenges. Many residents in South Africa face pre-existing elevated levels of stress and the pandemic may have had varying impacts on sub-populations. The aims of this study were to determine: 1) the factors associated with post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and 2) sex differences in the factors associated with PTSS in adults residing in South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Study participants aged 18 years and above, were recruited for this cross-sectional study through an online survey implemented from June 29, 2020 to December 31, 2020. The outcome variable was PTSS;explanatory variables were sex at birth, COVID-19 status, social isolation and access to emotional support. Confounders considered were age, education level completed and current work status. Logistic regressions were used to determine the association between the outcome and explanatory variables after adjusting for confounders. Outcomes: There were 489 respondents. Among all respondents, those who were older (AOR: 0.97;95% CI: 0.95 - 0.99) and had access to emotional support from family and relatives (AOR: 0.27;95% CI: 0.14 - 0.53) had significantly lower odds of PTSS. Respondents who felt socially isolated had higher odds of PTSS (AOR: 1.17;95% CI: 1.08 - 1.27). Females had higher PTSS scores and higher odds of PTSS compared to males (AOR: 2.18;95% CI: 1.41-3.39). Females (AOR: 0.27;95% CI: 0.08 - 0.95) and males (AOR: 0.26;95% CI: 0.11, 0.59) who had access to emotional support had significantly lower odds of PTSS than those who had no support. Females (AOR: 1.15;95% CI: 1.04 -1.27) and males (AOR: 1.19;95% CI: 0.11, 0.59) who felt socially isolated had higher odds of PTSS compared to those who did not feel socially isolated. Interpretation: Compared to males, females had higher scores and higher odds of reporting PTSS during the COVID- 19 pandemic. Access to emotional support ameliorated the odds of having PTSS for both sexes, while feeling socially isolated worsened the odds for both sexes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

The Role of Contextual Factors in Private Sector Engagement: A Case Study of Private Sector Contribution to COVID-19 Mitigation in Nigeria.

The Private Sector Coalition against COVID-19 (CACOVID) was established on the 27th of March 2020 to mobilize private sector resources toward supporting the government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, CACOVID set out to provide leadership functions, raise public awareness, provide buy-in for COVID-19 prevention, and provide direct support to strengthen the health system's capacity to respond to the crisis. In this paper, we examine the contextual factors that shaped the private sector's engagement in the fight against the pandemic with a view to identifying progress and learning opportunities. A desk review of the existing literature and documents from relevant stakeholders (government, organized private sector, and civil society organizations) was carried out. Using both the Grindle and Thomas (1) and Husted and Salazar (2) frameworks, we identified individual characteristics (industry expertise and position, philanthropy, and personal/economic interest); the economic crises created by the pandemic; a weak health system; and the multi-sectoral nature of the response to the pandemic.as contextual factors that influenced public-private collaboration in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. That is, the private sector collaborated with the government based on several interrelated contexts that confront them with issues they need to address; determine what options are feasible politically, economically, and administratively; set limits on what solutions are eventually considered; and respond to efforts to alter existing policies and institutional practices. The identified contextual factors provide learning opportunities for enhancing public-private partnership in advancing healthcare not just in Nigeria, but also in related countries in Africa and other developing countries.

COVID-19, economic problems, and family relationships in eight Middle East and North African countries.

Objective: The aim was to assess the reported family relationships during the COVID-19 pandemic and the association between these relationships and individual, interpersonal, and country-level income in eight Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. Background: COVID-19 causes fear of infection, loss of loved ones, and economic problems that may affect family relationships. Methods: Data were collected from eight MENA countries using an online survey (July-August 2020). The dependent variable was change in family relationship during COVID-19, and the independent variables were individual, interpersonal, and country-level factors represented by sociodemographic factors, COVID-19 status, financial impact (whether participants lost or had reduced wages) and country income. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was conducted. Results: There were 1854 responses, mean (SD) age of 30.6 (9.9) years, 65.8% were female, 3.4% tested COVID-19 positive, and 20.8% reported lost/reduced wages. Family relationships were more likely to improve or remain unchanged (84.3%) for participants who had a history of COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [1.25, 10.01]). However, family relationships were more likely to not improve for those who knew someone who died of COVID-19 (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI [0.58, 0.99]) and those with lost/reduced wages (AOR = 0.69, 95% CI [0.52, 0.94]). Conclusion: Family relationship improved or remained unchanged for those who tested positive for COVID-19 and did not improve for those who lost wages or lost someone due to COVID-19. Implications: Policy makers should develop strategies to provide social and financial support to employees to reduce the losses and adverse social impact caused by the pandemic.

Differences in COVID-19 Preventive Behavior and Food Insecurity by HIV Status in Nigeria.

The aim of the study was to assess if there were significant differences in the adoption of COVID-19 risk preventive behaviors and experience of food insecurity by people living with and without HIV in Nigeria. This was a cross-sectional study that recruited a convenience sample of 4471 (20.5% HIV positive) adults in Nigeria. Binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to test the associations between the explanatory variable (HIV positive and non-positive status) and the outcome variables-COVID-19 related behavior changes (physical distancing, isolation/quarantine, working remotely) and food insecurity (hungry but did not eat, cut the size of meals/skip meals) controlling for age, sex at birth, COVID-19 status, and medical status of respondents. Significantly fewer people living with HIV (PLWH) reported a positive COVID-19 test result; and had lower odds of practicing COVID-19 risk preventive behaviors. In comparison with those living without HIV, PLWH had higher odds of cutting meal sizes as a food security measure (AOR: 3.18; 95% CI 2.60-3.88) and lower odds of being hungry and not eating (AOR: 0.24; 95% CI 0.20-0.30). In conclusion, associations between HIV status, COVID-19 preventive behaviors and food security are highly complex and warrant further in-depth to unravel the incongruities identified.